Research brief · compiled August 21, 2026

Jones Act
War Room

Who's defending the law that keeps the river workforce American, what's on the table to expand mariner pay and benefits, and where a towboat crew's voice actually moves Washington — right now, in the middle of the biggest Jones Act fight in decades.

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DAYS
until the blanket Jones Act fuel waiver expires Nov 15, 2026.
Running since Mar 17, 2026 — the longest, broadest waiver since at least 1950. The next extension decision is the pressure point.
212foreign-flag voyages between U.S. ports under the 2026 waiver (54M+ barrels), ~18% on China-linked ships
51+House Republicans — led by Speaker Johnson & Leader Scalise (both R-LA) — demanded the waiver die
90%of congressional staff say a personalized postal letter influences an undecided member
01 · What the law holds up

The towboat stakes

The "Jones Act fleet" is mostly your fleet. Barges on the Mississippi River system alone are roughly 55% of all Jones Act hulls; the blue-water side is down to ~90–99 ships. Most Jones Act mariners work the rivers and the GIWW.

5,500
tugboats & towboats (AWO)
31,000+
barges moving 760M+ tons/yr
127,500
jobs from inland operators (NWF/TTI 2025)
$10.2B
annual inland wages
60%
of U.S. grain exports move by barge
LA·TX·MS
top job states — towboat country is the political base

The wage ladder the crewing rule protects

NWF / Texas A&M Transportation Institute 2025 midpoint day rates. The 75%-U.S.-crew requirement plus U.S. labor law is the wage floor under every rung — international-flag seafarers work for an estimated 15–70% less. Hover a bar for the annual figure.

Captain$827/day≈ $150K–$198K/yr — the top of the river ladder; repeal pressure hits the premium rungs first
Pilot$754/day≈ $136K–$181K/yr
Steersman$545/dayThe apprentice-wheelhouse rung — the ladder's future
Engineer$479/day≈ $87K–$115K/yr
Tankerman$367/day≈ $66K–$88K/yr — the coastwise liquids trades most exposed to waivers pay these wages
Mate$250/day≈ $45K–$60K/yr
Deckhand$204/day≈ $37K–$49K/yr — no experience required to enter; safety record ~1/120th of trucking's fatality rate

If the wall came down, where does it break first?

Honest read of both sides' studies. PwC (July 2026, for Transportation Institute): a sustained waiver puts up to 133,700 total jobs, $12.2B labor income, and $26.5B of 10-year shipbuilding demand at risk — with a candid 10× uncertainty range. Cato's counter: pure river linehaul is "naturally protected" by immigration, customs, tax, and inspection law. The 2026 waiver settled part of the argument:

FIRST
Coastwise ATB & products trades

Already demonstrably contestable — 212 foreign voyages in five months. A COSCO-owned Chinese tanker, Jin Zhou Wan, ran asphalt Harvey, LA → Baltimore twice: a lane a Jones Act operator would otherwise serve. These are the highest-paying towboat-world jobs ($160K+ ATB captains).

SECOND
Gulf coastwise liquids & specialty cargoes

LNG, ammonia, asphalt, propane runs — the waiver exposed real Jones Act fleet gaps in bulk propane and asphalt, inviting permanent foreign entry arguments.

LAST
Pure river linehaul

Grain tows Cairo→NOLA: 9-ft channels, 600-ft chambers, wicket dams, and a skill set no foreign fleet has. Cato's point has real force here — but wage compression flows downhill: kill the premium at the top of the ladder and steersman programs, tankerman pay, and deckhand retention all re-price.

02 · The live fire

The 2026 waiver fight

The same administration that signed the "Restoring America's Maritime Dominance" executive order is waiving the law that underpins the domestic fleet. Every advocacy channel in the industry is mobilized around killing this waiver — and that alignment is the opening for a mariner-voice campaign.

How we got here

APR 9 2025
EO 14269 — "Restoring America's Maritime Dominance"

Whole-of-government Maritime Action Plan ordered: shipbuilding incentives, mariner workforce strategy, China ship fees. The pro-maritime high-water mark.

FEB 2026
Maritime Action Plan released

Adopts the mariner income-tax exclusion, a Mariner Incentive Program, government-paid MMC training. Explicitly built on the SHIPS for America Act.

MAR 17 2026
Blanket waiver issued — 60 days

Iran war / Strait of Hormuz fuel disruption cited. ~659 product categories: gasoline, jet fuel, crude, LNG, naphtha, soy oil, fertilizer. Longest and broadest waiver since at least 1950.

MAY 18 2026
Extended 90 days

Industry, labor, and Congress unite in opposition: AMP launches the national "End the Waiver" ad campaign May 26 targeting LA, MS, FL, VA, AL, GA, SC, TN. 100+ CEOs and union presidents sign an open letter.

JUL 1 2026
Speaker Johnson & Leader Scalise lead 51+ House Republicans

Letter demanding the waiver be allowed to expire. Louisiana leadership carrying this is huge — these are the towing industry's home-state members. Larsen and Carbajal ran the Democratic version in May.

AUG 10 2026
Extended again — but narrowed

90 more days, through Nov 15. Now case-by-case voyage review with MARAD consultation on U.S.-vessel availability and a shorter commodity list. The pressure is visibly working; the waiver isn't dead.

What it's actually done

AMP's case, backed by the Navigistics after-action report: pump prices didn't move (global crude sets them); the winners were oil traders' margins. Kirby — the largest U.S. tank barge operator — told investors the inland impact is zero and coastal impact minimal (term contracts), while publicly calling the waiver trader arbitrage that "unfairly benefits foreign mariners." The threat isn't this quarter's rates — it's the precedent: every extension builds the repeal lobby's "the sky didn't fall" file, and Cato is running the 54M barrels as a natural experiment.

03 · Who's holding the line

The defenders

The pro-Jones Act coalition is broad, unified, and currently loud. Filter by type — every card ends with how a working towboat mariner plugs in.

Umbrella coalition

American Maritime Partnership

Jennifer Carpenter, president (also AWO CEO) · ~650,000 jobs represented

Running the national "End the Waiver" TV/digital campaign in Gulf and Southeast states; organized the 100+ CEO/union-leader letter; puts working mariners on camera in local media.

endthewaiver.com + americanmaritimevoices.org (free individual sign-up, action alerts). AMP actively recruits working mariners for local media interviews.
The towboat industry's own voice

American Waterways Operators

Jennifer Carpenter, president & CEO

The tug/towboat/barge trade association. The 2025 "Barge-In" put 156 industry ambassadors into 232 lawmaker meetings across 40 states. Statement opposing every waiver extension.

AWO Letter newsletter (free); Southern Region covers the Gulf/lower Miss. Membership is company-level — engage via your employer or via AMP's VOICES.
Inland infrastructure ally

Waterways Council, Inc.

Tracy Zea, president & CEO

The lock-and-dam funding lobby — the demand side of towboat jobs. Won the permanent 75/25 construction cost-share in WRDA 2024; pushing WRDA 2026 and Lock 25 / Montgomery Lock money now.

Capitol Currents newsletter; annual Washington fly-in welcomes people who can speak from the wheelhouse.
Shipyards + citizen membership

Shipbuilders Council & Navy League

Matthew Paxton (SCA) · Mike Stevens (Navy League)

SCA supplies the shipyard-jobs-per-state numbers for constituent letters; the Navy League's 2025–26 policy statement formally opposes repeal and flagged foreign influence campaigns against the Act.

Navy League membership is open to any civilian — New Orleans, Houston, and Memphis councils run legislative-affairs campaigns.
Largest deep-sea union

Seafarers International Union

David Heindel, president

Jones Act protection is its #1 legislative priority; the Seafarers LOG covers every waiver development; co-launched the End the Waiver campaign.

seafarers.org action alerts + the monthly LOG.
Officers' unions

MM&P · MEBA · AMO

Don Josberger · Adam Vokac · Willie Barrere

All three co-signed the March 12, 2026 maritime-labor letter to the President. MEBA: the waiver "has done nothing to lower prices at the pump." AMO: it "sabotages the administration's own maritime dominance agenda."

Wheelhouse Weekly (bridgedeck.org), mebaunion.org, amo-union.org — all circulating action items.
Labor federation

AFL-CIO Transportation Trades & Maritime Trades

Greg Regan (TTD, 37 unions) · MTD

Federation-level amplifiers: renewed suspension demands on the Act's 106th anniversary; keep the "union jobs" frame in front of Democratic offices. West Coast inland mariners organize under the IBU (Robert Estrada).

ttd.org and maritimetrades.org statements — quotable ammunition for cards and posts.
The SHIPS Act bloc

Kelly · Young · T. Kelly · Garamendi

S.1541 / H.R.3151 sponsors — bipartisan

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ, USMMA grad and ex-mariner) and Sen. Todd Young (R-IN) lead the Senate; Reps. Trent Kelly (R-MS) and John Garamendi (D-CA) lead the House. The affirmative pro-maritime agenda: 250 U.S.-crewed ships, mariner benefits, cargo preference.

"Support S.1541 / H.R.3151" is the evergreen positive ask on any card or call.
Gulf leadership

Speaker Johnson & Leader Scalise

Both R-LA — towboat country's home delegation

Led 51+ House Republicans demanding the waiver expire (July 1, 2026). The most powerful Republicans in the House are already on the industry's side of this fight.

Louisiana/Gulf constituents: thank-and-reinforce mail is the play — signers need to hear it mattered at home.
Committee gatekeepers

Sullivan · Ezell · Wittman · Courtney

The choke points for maritime bills

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) chairs Senate Commerce's Coast Guard & Maritime subcommittee; Rep. Mike Ezell (R-MS) chairs the House counterpart; Wittman (R-VA) and Courtney (D-CT) co-chair the 110-member Shipbuilding Caucus. Repeal and carve-out bills die or live in their rooms.

Their offices weigh mail from maritime workers heavily — committee staff track industry sentiment.
The intellectual case

Michael Roberts & Joshua Hendrickson

Hudson Institute · Univ. of Mississippi economist

Roberts (ex-Crowley GC, AMP founder) writes the sharpest defenses: "Trump's Jones Act Waiver Undermines His Own Maritime Agenda." Hendrickson supplies the rare academic-economics case — the merchant marine as defense-complementary capital — countering Cato's Grabow.

Source material for op-eds, posts, and talking points.
The megaphones

Sal Mercogliano & gCaptain

"What's Going on With Shipping" (~500K subs) · John Konrad

Mercogliano is the most influential maritime explainer to a lay audience and covers the waiver fight constantly. gCaptain is the industry's daily news hub. Between them, they set the narrative mariners see.

Watch-and-share lane — the fastest way to stay current on the fight.
04 · Growing the pie

Expanding mariner benefits

Defense is half the fight. Here's everything actually on the table (2025–26) that would raise a mariner's pay, cut their costs, or grow their job market — ranked by how real it is today.

Coast Guard Authorization Act — credentialing title

Enacted · Dec 2025

Rode the FY26 NDAA. Streamlines MMC processing and grows the qualified mariner pool — faster, cheaper credential renewals for every working towboater. The one reform that's already law this cycle.

USTR LNG carriage mandate

Final rule · effective Apr 2028

First-ever binding requirement that LNG exports move on U.S.-flagged, U.S.-crewed ships — 1% in 2028, U.S.-built phase-in 2029, rising toward 15% by 2047. Survived the Nov 2025 China-fees suspension. Creates a brand-new top-of-market deep-sea segment for U.S. crews.

WRDA lock & dam money

Law + appropriations moving

WRDA 2024's permanent 75/25 federal cost-share is the biggest inland win in years; FY27 bills carry $250M for Lock 25 (Upper Miss) and $167M for Montgomery Lock (Ohio). Reliable 1,200-ft locks = more tows = more crews. WRDA 2026 is in progress.

Mariner income-tax exclusion

White House policy · bill text pending

The Maritime Action Plan adopted the union-backed proposal: exclude income earned on U.S.-flag vessels on international routes from federal tax — the same treatment Americans working abroad get. Needs a Finance/Ways & Means vehicle. For deep-sea mariners, potentially the biggest paycheck item on this list. (Inland note: 46 U.S.C. §11108 already shields multi-state towboat crews from non-resident state taxation.)

SHIPS for America Act (S.1541 / H.R.3151)

Pending · Senate Commerce

The flagship: 250-ship U.S.-crewed strategic fleet (≈8–10K new deep-sea billets), student loan forgiveness (PSLF) + GI Bill eligibility for mariners, career retention program, digitized credentialing, 100% government cargo preference, Maritime Security Trust Fund. "Hung up" in committee but White House-endorsed — most likely to move in chunks via NDAA/appropriations in late 2026.

Mariner Incentive Program + paid MMC training

Proposed · Maritime Action Plan

MARAD would pay for the training required to earn and upgrade a Merchant Mariner Credential — i.e., the government covers your license ladder — plus retention incentives. The Centers of Excellence program (2026 designation cycle open) and a $30M community-college grant authorization are the funding paths most likely to reach a Gulf/river deckhand-to-wheelhouse school.

Cargo preference expansion

Proposed · multiple vehicles

Restore food-aid preference from 50% back to 75%; the Energizing American Shipbuilding Act's targets (10% of crude, 15% of LNG exports on U.S. bottoms) are inside both the SHIPS Act and the USTR rule. Cargo is the demand side: every preference point is billets.

The 2026 blanket fuel waiver

Active threat · expires Nov 15

The one item moving against mariners: 240+ days of foreign-flag coastwise fuel movement, directly undercutting the coastwise tank trades and the investment case for U.S.-flag tankers. Killing it is the industry's unified ask.

05 · Know the attack surface

The opposition

Cato's Colin Grabow runs the best-resourced repeal shop (Project on Jones Act Reform, the waiver tracker, a 60 Minutes segment). AEI's line is explicit: "keep waiving it until it's repealed for good." Sen. Mike Lee's repeal bill (S.2043) and the Case/Moylan/Torres carve-out bills give it legislative homes. Their five best arguments — and the counters that work:

"The 2026 waiver proved the Act was suppressing commerce — the sky didn't fall."

Their most potent argument ever, and it's new: 54M barrels moved on 212 foreign voyages with no supply crisis.

Pump prices didn't drop — global crude sets them; the documented winners were oil traders' margins (Navigistics after-action report). Meanwhile ~18% of the voyages ran on China-linked hulls, including a COSCO tanker doing Harvey→Baltimore asphalt — a live demo of exactly the dependency the law exists to prevent. "The sky didn't fall" ignores that fleets and crews erode over years, not months.

"It's a cost-of-living tax on Hawaii, Alaska, and Puerto Rico."

The affordability frame recruits Democrats (Torres, Case) and polls well in noncontiguous states.

Independent estimates put the Jones Act premium on East Coast fuel at pennies per gallon (~$0.003–$0.015); island grocery prices track port costs, taxes, and land far more than shipping. And carve-outs wouldn't build a single new ship — they'd just move the jobs offshore first in the places with the least political power to resist.

"If it's essential to national security, why is it waived every crisis?"

The "waiver paradox" — rhetorically clean, and the 2026 waiver hands it fresh ammunition.

Turn it around: the waiver contradicts the administration's own EO 14269 and Maritime Action Plan — which is exactly why Speaker Johnson, 51+ House Republicans, every maritime union, and 100+ CEOs demanded it die. Congress itself banned long-term waivers in 2020 except for military necessity; the 2026 waiver is the aberration, not the rule.

"The fleet shrank anyway — the law failed at its own goal."

~90–99 oceangoing Jones Act ships, no U.S.-built LNG carriers, <1% of world commercial tonnage built here.

The blue-water decline argument ignores where the fleet actually lives: 5,500 towboats and 31,000+ barges — 55% of Jones Act hulls are Mississippi system barges — supporting 127,500 inland jobs. And the fix for the blue-water side is the SHIPS Act's 250-ship fleet and cargo preference, not repeal: you don't rebuild a fleet by removing its market.

"Inland trades are 'naturally protected' — repeal wouldn't touch the rivers anyway."

Grabow's towboat-specific argument: immigration, customs, tax, and inspection law would keep foreign crews off the Lower Miss even without the Jones Act.

Partly true for grain linehaul — and beside the point. The protective "web" is contingent (foreign operators were already lawyering through residual U.S. law under the waiver), the Gulf seam is porous (coastwise ATB/liquids — the highest-paying towboat jobs — were contested within weeks in 2026), and wage compression flows downhill: kill the ATB-captain premium and the whole ladder from steersman to deckhand re-prices. The wall gets tested at its coastal seams, not its river core.

06 · Where a mariner's voice lands

The playbook

Congressional Management Foundation staff surveys — the best evidence that exists — say personalized postal mail from verified constituents is one of the top tactics available to an individual mariner. Volume gets tallied; personalization is the multiplier.

What moves an undecided member of Congress

% of congressional staff saying the tactic has real influence on an undecided member (CMF surveys). Hover for detail.

In-person visit94%Fly-ins, district-office visits, port tours — the AWO Barge-In model (232 meetings, 40 states)
Personal letter
(postal)
90%the postcard laneVerified in-district address + personal story + specific bill ask + the sender's own words
Personal email88%Individualized email lands nearly as well — but gets filtered into CRM queues faster
Form blast~3%Identical messages get batched and tallied; most staff have never rated form email as "a lot of influence"

Tier 1 · Reinforce

  • Gulf delegation signers of the Johnson–Scalise letter — LA, MS, TX, AL members need to hear at home that standing up for the Jones Act mattered.
  • Thank-and-hold cards beat cold asks: the member already moved; the mail confirms the constituency noticed.

Tier 2 · Push the wins

  • SHIPS Act sponsors + Senate Commerce — "pass S.1541 / H.R.3151" and "send the mariner tax exclusion to the floor."
  • Sullivan, Ezell, Wittman, Courtney — the committee/caucus gatekeepers where maritime bills live or die.

Tier 3 · Watch

  • Nov 15 waiver decision — White House call, not a floor vote; congressional mail keeps the heat on members who pressure the administration.
  • NDAA season — the historic ambush vehicle for Jones Act-weakening amendments; carve-out bills recruit quietly.

Put your own name on this fight

The evidence above is why Jones Act Postcards works the way it does: a real 6x9 card, mailed to both of your senators, with your name, your years on the water, and your own words leading — never a form blast. $6.99 covers printing and postage for both cards.

Send your senators a postcard → Takes about 3 minutes. Your words, their desks.

Free ways to stay in the fight: AMP's americanmaritimevoices.org action alerts, endthewaiver.com, your union hall's alerts, and Navy League local councils.